Tape Flow is a money-flow measure in the tradition Laszlo Birinyi pioneered in the 1980s: every trade on the consolidated tape is classified as buyer- or seller-initiated and weighted by its dollar value, then summed. Price tells you where the market went; signed dollar flow tells you what it cost to get there.
The premise: signed dollar flow often turns before price does — so a bear cycle that price refuses to follow is selling being absorbed, and the bull cross that ends it is the entry. That rule is the shrug this page tracks; whether the edge is real is exactly what the record here is testing.
A fast and a slow average of the flow cross to define bull and bear cycles. Shaded regions on the chart are bear cycles, and shrug marks the ones price ignored — each is a candidate entry.
What's settled and what isn't. The flow construction is well established (Barron's); the shrug rule is not. That is why this page exists: every signal is logged the moment it fires, with its filters fixed in advance, and the accumulating record is the test. Research output, not advice.
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