BTC Flow · SPY Shrugged

Cycles: green tint means fast is above slow; red tint means it is below. Gray identifies a counter-state net flow: a bear cycle with net buying is buying deceleration, not net selling; a bull cycle with net selling is selling deceleration, not net buying. Cycle dollars accumulate from the observed cross. These labels update as each bar closes; old bars are not recolored using future cycle dollars.

Cycle Quality: the ribbon matches the stock chart's measure: (fast − slow) divided by the median absolute gap of the prior 78 bars, needing 20 nonzero prior gaps. Amber is transition (<0.25×); developing is <1×, established <2×, and strong ≥2×. Expanding / contracting describes the fast–slow gap, not the sign of dollar flow. This is state quality, not calibrated confidence or a price forecast.

Cross dots appear only on closed bars. Shrug labels appear at the confirming cross: a completed bear cycle with net selling but price flat/up is a bullish shrug; the mirrored bull cycle with net buying but price flat/down is a bearish shrug. “Buy decel” / “Sell decel” distinguish cases where dollars did not support the cycle direction. Price is compared from the first cycle bar's close to the new cross bar's close. Initial truncated cycles and forming bars cannot establish tags. These are observations, not entry arrows or a tested BTC strategy.

Controls: drag dividers to resize panes. Pane menus collapse, resize, reorder, or reset individual charts; drag ⋮⋮ to reorder on desktop. Heights and order survive refreshes. Wheel zooms around the cursor, or stays pinned at the live edge; Shift-wheel or horizontal trackpad movement pans. Drag price to pan both axes; drag a right-hand value scale to stretch that pane vertically. Double-click resets zoom and value scales. On touch, use + / −, swipe horizontally to pan, or drag a divider to resize; vertical swipes still scroll the page.

Sources: Coinbase Flow preserves the original calculation. Its reported maker side is inverted: resting sells lifted by aggressive buyers count positive. Kraken reports taker side: buys count positive without guessing. Each standalone view uses its own venue's price. BTC Multi-Venue Flow adds their actual buy/sell dollars over jointly covered complete UTC minutes, then applies the transform. It is not an average of the two indicators. The combined chart uses Coinbase reference prices, not a blended or synthetic Bitcoin price. It waits for both venues; missing/stale feeds never become zero or a single-venue fallback.

Venue agreement compares the venues' fast/slow cycle states on the same closed bar and selected timeframe. Both bull, both bear, or disagreement is context—not calibrated confidence or an entry signal. A bull cycle need not mean net buying. Each venue retains its own continuous warmup history; the composite starts at their common coverage.

UTC bars feed a continuous 10-bar rolling sum, SMA6 slow and SMA-seeded EMA4 fast (α=0.4). No stock auction exclusions, daily reset, burst re-signing, or fitted venue weights. Cumulative delta starts at the selected history's beginning. Unknown sides are not guessed. Times mark bar starts. Summaries and tags use closed bars only; solid lines at the right may still be provisional. Trades are polled every ten seconds with provider-specific pagination and restart recovery. The composite trails single-venue forming bars by up to a minute plus polling/trade delays. This is two spot venues, not consolidated crypto or futures flow.

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